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Welcome to yet another insightful edition of Market Mosaic.
This week, standby power on America's biggest grid cost 11 times as much as it did 4 years ago, and housing starts fell 5.2% in September.
We also looked at how 80% of Americans plan to buy for Halloween, down from 90%, and how warehouse vacancy fell to 6.4%.
Ask the Desk, our latest AI tool, for data-driven insights on what they mean for your business and market.
Insights Team, Rwazi
Data visualization by Market Mosaic.
America's biggest power grid now pays 11 times more to keep plants on standby
The price America's biggest power grid pays to keep plants on standby hit $325 per megawatt-day for the 2028/29 delivery year, up from $29 in 2024/25. That is 11 times more in 4 delivery years and nearly double the previous high of $165.
The last 3 auctions all landed at the price limit, with $329 and $333 before it. The 10-year average through 2024/25 was $91, so today's price runs 3.6 times that. Surging data center demand is driving the squeeze.
Key Insights
Capacity has turned scarce as data centers crowd the grid, and 3 straight auctions at the price limit suggest buyers will keep paying more. See how your own power costs compare.
Finding data-driven market insights from Market Mosaic used to mean scrolling through weeks or months of newsletters.
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Housing starts fell 5.2% in September as the West and Midwest pulled back sharply
Builders broke ground on homes at an annual rate of 1,221,000 in September, down 5.2% from August and 7.4% from a year earlier. Permits slipped 0.2% to 1,400,000 and sit 3.0% below last year.
The South carried the market, with starts up 6.1% month to 714,000, while the West fell 23.2% and the Midwest 19.0%. Single-family starts of 859,000 are still up 2.6% from a year ago, though completions fell 14.0%. Monthly starts carry a margin of error of about 11%.
Key Insights
Permits still outpace starts, so the pipeline hasn’t dried up, but growth is concentrated in the South while other regions slow. See how your own regional demand compares.
Fewer Americans plan to buy for Halloween, and those who do are spending $30 less
80% of Americans plan to buy for Halloween this year, down from 90% in 2025. Celebrators expect to spend $162 on average, down from $192 last year and $172 in 2024.
61% of celebrators will skip some purchases, led by candy (35%), decorations (31%), and costumes (29%). 35% have gone into debt for Halloween before, and 24% expect to this year, with 43% of Gen Z, 14% of Gen X, and 2% of boomers.
Key Insights
Shoppers are trimming their baskets instead of skipping the holiday, and borrowing is concentrated among Gen Z, so seasonal demand leans on the youngest buyers. See how your own seasonal demand compares.
Warehouse leasing hit its strongest quarter since 2022 as vacancy fell to 6.4%
US industrial space absorbed 104.6 million square feet in Q3, the most since Q4 2022 and well above the 10-year quarterly average of 82.9 million. Vacancy fell 20 basis points to 6.4% from a year ago, and availability fell 30 basis points to 8.9%.
Average asking rent rose 3.6% to $11.16 per square foot. Leasing reached 276.8 million square feet, up 27.1%, and leases of 700,000 square feet or more nearly doubled. Dallas-Fort Worth led year-to-date absorption at 23.6 million square feet.
Key Insights
Tenants are absorbing space faster than builders deliver it, so rents are climbing and options are tightening for shippers who need capacity. See how your own warehouse costs compare.
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