Happy New Year from Market Mosaic.
2025 was a defining chapter for us. We published 50 consecutive editions, grew our community to nearly 200,000 business leaders, and helped you navigate global markets.
You asked for more depth, and we listened. As we start 2026, we know that "insights" is no longer enough. You need intelligence.
Today, January 6, we are officially opening the doors to the new Market Mosaic Executive Membership.
We are evolving from a standard newsletter into a global media platform. To kick off this new era, we are also sharing our core predictions for the year ahead and the tools you will need to capitalise on it.
We have designed two subscription tiers to give you the business and market competitive edge you need in 2026, with special annual pricing to welcome you aboard.
OUR BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR 2026
2026 Outlook: The great consumer divergence 📊📈
Every major financial institution is telling you the same story right now: "Global growth will slow to 3.0%."
We disagree.
Our data analysis says that looking at the "global average" in 2026 is a dangerous mistake. We are witnessing a massive decoupling in consumer behaviour. The strategy that wins in a "Stagnant Giant" (like Western Europe or parts of North America) will fail in a "Velocity Market" (Emerging Asia, Africa, and LATAM).
Here are the three (3) specific market shifts we are betting on this year:
1. Retail & CPG: The "Sandwich" Effect
The Shift: The middle market is officially dead.
The Prediction: In "Stagnant Giants," we predict a 15% surge in Private Label dominance as inflation-weary consumers trade down from legacy brands. Conversely, in "Velocity Markets," we are tracking a massive "Premiumization Wave."
Key Insight
If you are selling "mid-tier" goods, you are in the kill zone. Pivot to Value in the West and Aspiration in the East. A new class of young, affluent consumers is trading up, driving double-digit growth in luxury and premium heritage brands.
2. Fintech & E-Commerce: The Rise of the "Sovereign Shopper"
The Shift: Borders are becoming irrelevant to the digital consumer.
The Prediction: We predict cross-border digital commerce will outpace domestic e-commerce growth by 2x. Consumers in restrictive markets are increasingly using VPNs, stablecoins, and alternative payment rails (like the BNPL boom we tracked in Asia last year) to bypass local limitations.
Key Insight
The "Sovereign Shopper" doesn't care about your local distribution rights. They want access. Brands that enable "borderless payments" will capture this hidden economy worth billions.
3. Tech & Media: The "Hardware" Renaissance
The Shift: Software has peaked; hardware is the new bottleneck.
The Prediction: After years of cloud dominance, 2026 will be the year consumer processing power moves back to the "Edge." As local AI models become standard, consumers will aggressively upgrade devices (smartphones, wearables) to handle them.
Key Insight
The "App Store" era is slowing. The "AI Device" era has begun. We project average selling prices (ASPs) for hardware to rise, driven by demand in Velocity Markets where mobile is the primary compute device.
The analysis above is just the tip of the iceberg.
Later this month, we are releasing our flagship 2026 Global Markets Outlook. This comprehensive report breaks down exactly which countries fall into the "Velocity" bucket and provides the data map for where capital will flow in Q1 and Q2.
How do you get it? It will be sent exclusively to our Market Mosaic Premium members upon release.
Cheers to another year of insightful global market analyses. Thank you for making Market Mosaic your trusted source.
🎁 To express our gratitude for the amazing year you have had with us, we are offering you our Consumer Insights Report 2025 for 60% OFF the usual price.
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Consumer Insights Report (2025)
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You’ve read the data. But how well did you synthesise it?
We built a proprietary assessment to find out. The Business Intelligence Score (BIS) benchmarks your strategic thinking against the 200,000+ executives reading this newsletter.
It takes 3 minutes, and it gives you a "Strategic Insights" for 2026.
Ready to find out where you stand?
This is Question #4 from our Business Intelligence assessment. 40% of leaders get this wrong. 📉
👇 Vote below, then see the correct answer by taking the full quiz here