📈#057: The great global market reversal is here

You are welcome to Market Mosaic, where, in this week's edition, we are exploring our analysis into Taiwan’s TSMC game-changing $100 billion US chip investment to disrupt the global tech supply chains, how international markets are suddenly outperforming the US and the S&P 500 by 5x for the first time in a decade.

We also analyze how fragrance is becoming the surprising driver of profit and unexpected growth across multiple CPG categories and show Amazon's strategic push to extend its fulfillment dominance beyond its own marketplace.

Let's dig into some actionable insights together.

— Insights Team, Rwazi

SECTOR PERFORMANCE TRACKER

TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION
On TSMC's $100 billion US investment for semiconductor

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has dramatically expanded its commitment to US-based chip production, announcing plans to invest $100 billion over the next four years. This significant increase from the company's previous $65 billion investment in Phoenix shows a major shift in the global semiconductor and tech supply chain.

The deal addresses key concerns from both nations:

• For the US: Accelerates domestic chip manufacturing capacity with TSMC's most advanced technology, not just legacy tech

• For Taiwan: Mitigates risks associated with potential tariffs on semiconductor exports

Our consumer data analysis shows heightened awareness among tech-savvy consumers regarding supply chain sovereignty, with 63% expressing concerns about technology dependency on specific regions. TSMC joins a growing cohort of tech giants— including OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, and Apple — that have recently increased their US investment commitments.

Key Insight: The semiconductor industry's geographic realignment reflects a broader trend of "glocalization" where global companies are establishing regional manufacturing hubs to ensure supply chain resilience, reduce geopolitical risk, and meet growing consumer demand for domestically produced technology.

FINANCIAL SERVICES & ECONOMY
International markets surge as investors seek more diversification

After more than a decade of US stock market dominance, we are now witnessing a good shift in global investment patterns. International markets are experiencing a remarkable resurgence, outpacing the S&P 500's modest 4% growth over the past six months:

• Germany's DAX: +20%

• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +23%

• France's CAC: +10%

• UK's FTSE 100: +5%

• European-wide STOXX 600: +8.5%

This market rebalancing comes amid mounting concerns about US tariffs, layoffs, and inflation.

In Hong Kong, tech companies like Alibaba (with its new AI reasoning model) and BYD (now the world's largest EV maker, surpassing Tesla) are driving exceptional market performance. Our consumer data analysis has also observed a 27% increase in institutional investor interest in Asian technology companies compared to the previous quarter.

Key Insight: Consumer and investor sentiment is driving a strategic reallocation of capital toward previously overlooked international markets, creating opportunities for portfolio diversification beyond US-centric investments.

CONSUMER GOODS & RETAIL
Targeted demographics drive CPG growth strategies

Major Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies are pivoting toward new consumer segments and product categories to fuel future growth. Our data analysis of recent industry presentations reveals several noteworthy strategies:

Fragrance has become the fastest-growing beauty category based on dollar sales across both prestige and mass markets:

• Coty's prestige business now drives 60% of sales and 75% of profit

• L'Oréal reported a 14% growth in fragrance sales in 2024

• Even traditional cleaning brands like Clorox are expanding scent-focused product lines

• Our data analysis shows a 34% increase in Gen Z fragrance purchases compared to previous years, making it a key growth opportunity for beauty and personal care companies.

Rising cocoa prices continue to pressure confectionery companies:

• Hershey is "reinvigorating" its SkinnyPop popcorn brand with new packaging, sizes, and high-profile marketing

• Mondelez outlined a five-pillar plan to address cocoa inflation

• Based on an analysis of our consumer data, we predict chocolate prices could increase 30-50% in coming years

Key Insight: CPG companies are combating commodity challenges and market saturation by targeting untapped demographic segments and expanding into high-margin categories. Success will depend on delivering authentic experiences that resonate with specific consumer groups rather than pursuing mass-market appeal.

SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
Amazon expands Buy with Prime to strengthen supply chain dominance

Amazon is aggressively promoting its Buy with Prime checkout feature to direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands, with recent additions including Laura Mercier and soon Adidas. This strategic push allows Amazon to extend its supply chain dominance beyond its own marketplace.

Our analysis shows that Amazon is offering enhanced incentives to complement its 25% increase in shopper conversion and faster shipping times to attract premium brands to the program. This comes as global supply chains face potential disruption from impending trade policies, making Amazon's established logistics network increasingly valuable.

Key Insight: The future of e-commerce lies in hybrid models that combine the control and branding of direct-to-consumer channels with the logistics efficiency of established fulfillment networks. This represents a new paradigm where brands can maintain their identity while leveraging shared infrastructure — a model likely to disrupt consumer expectations for all online retailers.

We are seeing a fundamental realignment across multiple sectors. From the reshoring of semiconductor manufacturing to the diversification of investment portfolios and the evolution of consumer brand strategies, companies are adapting to a more complex and regionally nuanced global marketplace.

Thank you for reading and joining us on Market Mosaic this week. We hope this edition provides valuable, actionable insights for deciding with data. 📊 

Stay tuned for exclusive insights, as we introduce exciting new features designed to enhance your valued subscriber and reading experience at Market Mosaic.

WHAT IS HAPPENING AT RWAZI?
ICYMI: Sena, our new AI engine, set to disrupt our consumer insights offerings

We are proud to introduce to you Sena, a new AI engine of our parent brand, Rwazi. Sena will serve as an advanced decision-making assistant, capable of combining zero-party market data with a business’s internal data, such as sales performance and operational metrics.

This empowers us to continue serving businesses of all sizes and industries with smarter, more efficient decision-making tools and to identify opportunities and gaps in markets.

Read what our new AI engine is like here.